Election ‘Nostradamus’ says ‘October shock’ will not change prediction that Harris will win

A presidential historian and professor who appropriately predicted 9 of the final 10 US elections mentioned an “October shock” wouldn’t have an effect on his prediction that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 race.

American College professor Dr. Allan Lichtman predicted in early September that the Democratic nominee would take residence the win subsequent month in opposition to her Republican challenger, ex-President Donald Trump.

Lichtman, on Saturday, remained steadfast in his forecast — even when a last-minute scandal involving both candidate had been to interrupt this month, lower than 30 days earlier than the Nov. 5 Election Day.

“One of many best myths of American politics is the October shock,” the famend historian told CNN’s Michael Smerconish. “I’ve by no means modified my prediction in response to an October shock as a result of the keys gauged the massive image of incumbent governance in energy and don’t sway by the occasions of the marketing campaign.”

The “keys” Lichtman, 77, speaks of are 13 classes he makes use of to evaluate the probability of every candidate’s capability to win the White Home.

In September, he mentioned Harris has the benefit in eight of the 13 keys whereas Trump has three.

And the professor’s comment that the “October shock” is a fable does have some historic proof to again it up.

One of many more moderen and infamous “October surprises” got here one month earlier than the 2016 election when an “Entry Hollywood” tape was leaked to the Washington Submit that confirmed Trump making disturbing and stunning remarks about his therapy of girls.

“I don’t even wait. And while you’re a star, they allow you to do it. You are able to do something… Seize ’em by the p—y. You are able to do something,” Trump advised TV host Billy Bush about girls he wished to seduce within the 2005 clip.

Trump nonetheless gained the election as Lichtman appropriately predicted together with his keys system.

The scholar, who’s a registered Democrat, claims to have appropriately predicted the winner of each US presidential race since 1984 — although not with out some caveats identified by critics.

For example, he claimed to have predicted the winner of the 2000 election when he forecast Al Gore would win for the reason that Democrat gained the favored vote even when he didn’t make it to the White Home since George W. Bush gained the Electoral Faculty.

But he scrapped that logic 16 years later, when he mentioned Trump would win because the Republican misplaced the favored vote regardless that he grew to become president.

Lichtman mentioned he’s by no means modified a prediction in 40 years and he’s not together with his forecasting of a Harris win.

Nonetheless, the election forecaster inspired People to go to the polls subsequent month.

“The end result is as much as you, so get out and vote,” he beforehand mentioned.

The vice chairman has a 2-percentage level lead over Trump in multi-candidate polls, in keeping with the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate.